Topic: Israeli bombing of Gaza Strip.
"If the negotiations were held only between Palestine and Israel, peace would have been achieved long ago." -Palestinian peace talks representative
"Any war will end with a ceasefire agreement." -Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Leon
Lower than lebanon war’s tone in 2006, the Israeli "Operation Cast Lead" began with a pragmatic goal. On the first day of the war, Foreign Minister Livni said-not even to overthrow Hamas’s rule in Gaza, but to remove the rocket threat south of the border.
"We didn’t occupy all the streets and couldn’t stop them from launching rockets." In response to why southern Israel continues to be attacked by rockets from Hamas, Amog, commander-in-chief of Israel’s former southern theater, replied, "What we can do is to stop their willingness to launch rockets-Hezbollah has not launched rockets since 2006, even though it still owns rockets." At this time, it has been 11 days since the war began. Three days later, Israel rejected the cease-fire plan proposed by the UN Security Council.
Resolution 1860 of the United Nations Security Council demanded that Israel and Palestine cease fire immediately and allow humanitarian supplies and aid to enter, but did not distribute the post-war interests of both sides. Not surprisingly, the two sides who hit the ground in full swing not only didn’t see the reason to stop, but got the reason to continue to act. Both sides need to come up with some kind of "achievement" at the time of cease-fire and declare their victory.
The question is, will there be a win-win situation on the battlefield? For the Middle East, which is entangled with too many interests, peace is always a dynamic balance, not once and for all.
Israel: Refuse to repeat itself?
The two military objectives of "Operation Cast Lead" are to prevent Hamas from launching rockets in the northern part of Gaza, and to prevent it from continuing to acquire weapons and strengthen itself in the southern part of Gaza.
However, on the 15th day of the war, from the periphery of the Gaza Strip, it can be clearly seen that rockets are constantly soaring, pulling white or black straight lines in the sky, with arrows pointing directly at Israel. On January 10th, Hamas claimed on his website that the rocket hit an air base just 27km away from Tel Aviv, the second largest city in Israel-the longest range of a Hamas rocket ever. Israel has not confirmed this news, but Hamas seems to be interested in saying that it still has the ability to acquire weapons under Israeli artillery.
The two Israeli military objectives in the north and south of Gaza have not been completed.
The United States continues to transport arms to Israel, and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also said that "it is very difficult to protect civilians in densely populated areas like Gaza"-this is equivalent to tearing off the last piece of "humanitarian" fig leaf and giving Israel a green light to continue its actions.
In 2006, Israel rushed to fight in southern Lebanon, and ended up in a muddle, leaving Hezbollah to capture Israeli soldiers alive, forcing the Israeli army to invade, claiming that it won the war and became famous in the Middle East. At that time, in the Lebanese Palestinian refugee camp, the portrait of Arafat was replaced by Nasrallah-Israel will not allow this to happen again, so it must make a name for itself, and the international community also promised to help prevent arms smuggling in the southern part of the Gaza Strip.
Hamas: Does war add points to politics?
Many people may still be asking why Hamas went to war. As soon as the cease-fire agreement ended, it couldn’t hold back and the rockets were fired. Doesn’t it know that Israel will definitely respond-no matter what degree of blow?
After Fatah was expelled from Gaza in 2007 and took full control of this area with a population of 1.5 million, which was completely blocked on all sides, Hamas was under heavy pressure. With the economic blockade, it is difficult for food and fuel to flow in, and cash is cut off. The ATM in front of the Arab Bank in Gaza City was simply dismantled. Political allies Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria all show their kindness to varying degrees, expecting the next US president to bring them into the negotiation track, rather than attack them.
An isolated Hamas. Gaza people’s initial enthusiasm for electing Hamas to power is absent, and there are many complaints. And the way to win public opinion and fame-attacking Israel.
Israeli political circles are also looking forward to the election in February. Both sides are "hitting it off" and both need a war. The only difference is that Israel wants to "win" to completely change the pattern of border security, while Hamas can claim to "smash the invincible myth of Israel" as long as it resists and does not lose.
There are three elements in the framework of the cease-fire plan proposed by the United States, Egypt and France. Stop rocket launching and weapons smuggling, meeting Israel’s needs; However, opening Gaza port and improving people’s livelihood can be regarded as a political bonus by Hamas. Is Israel happy to see Hamas succeed? Can opening ports ensure that weapons will not be mixed with flour medicine?
Olmert said that the UN plan was not "operational" and was waiting for the details of the operation from a third party.
Outside: How many yellowbirds are there?
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who is 80 years old and has been in power for 27 years, should be grateful that the war has brought him back to the shrine of Middle East leaders.
Only Egypt has the ability to persuade Hamas to give up its weapons. Only Egypt can completely block the transportation of weapons in southern Gaza, that is, its own Sinai Peninsula. Although Egypt never admitted that it allowed Hamas to smuggle, it meant that smuggling came from the sea, not from its own feet.
Israeli Prime Minister Olmert began to blame Egypt by name and started a "nerve war". He wanted Mubarak to know that once Israel had to move into southern Gaza on its own, it might cause a large number of Gaza refugees to take refuge in Egypt, which was the last thing Egypt wanted.
Turkey, a moderate Muslim country that is committed to joining the EU, is also trying to play a constructive role. No one wants to be a peacekeeping force in Gaza, but it is actively involved.
Iran, Lebanon and Syria have been on the sidelines since the war began. The outside world has always said that Hamas is Iran’s agent in this region, but the division between Shiites (Iran) and Sunnis (Hamas) is doomed to be a combination of interests, or "convenient marriage", rather than an eternal alliance.
Israel’s fight before US President-elect Barack Obama takes office is also intended to crush the rumors that Obama may have direct talks with Iran or Hamas. Play a fait accompli-treat "terrorist organizations" or so-called "rogue countries", and the attitude cannot be ambiguous. This will be a problem and an opportunity for Obama. (International Herald Tribune Zhou Yijun)
Editor: Wang Yuxi
关于作者